Four months ago (June 07, see chart below) we published a post on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) calling it an 'Unpopular opinion' as despite a on ongoing rebound in May, we signaled a correction as, based on the long-term Channel Up since November 2022, it was technically possible to see a pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then extended consolidation until a potential bottom on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line):
Even though the Channel Up had to be readjusted, the price action delivered the exact pattern of the previous 6-month (April 11 - October 16 2023) consolidation and almost tested the 1D MA100, forming a bottom on August 04 2024.
The similarities between those two fractals are more evident on their 1D RSI sequences. This shows that right now we could be before a break-out similar on the October 16 2023 candle. Regardless of that, it appears that the new Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up is accelerating and a new High above 66500 would confirm it.
We have had 3 major Bullish Legs so far, more or less around the same levels (+92.27% to +101.57%). So a bad case scenario would be to see a +92.27% rally from the August 04 Low, which would still give us a $94500 Target.
So what do you think? Is the Channel Up just heating up and can the new Bullish Leg reach 94.5k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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