We finally saw the USD rebound I was beating the drum about back in September. But now it's hit a decent resistance zone, I weigh up its potential to hold its ground or producer a deeper pullback. Markets covered include the USD index, EUR/USD and gold.
MS.
The USD saw a sharp reversal higher despite a 50bp cut, simply because the markets were positioned for a more dovish dot plot. I have argued in prior analysis the USD exposure is a bit stretched over the near-term, so perhaps shorting the USD is getting a bit stale. We also have several key markets at inflection points after a risk event. Matt Simpson takes a...
Matt takes another look at Bitcoin futures to update his analysis from last week, which seems to be playing nicely with his view that it is trying to carve out a swing low on the daily chart and muster up the strength for a rally.
An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.
Looking at Bitcoin futures and how real-money accounts are positioned, a larger move higher could be brewing. But first, a nice setup could also be forming on the daily chart for a cheeky swing higher, if nothing else.
Metals were all lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a hard-landing scenario. But not all metals fell equally. We take a look at gold, silver and copper to sort the longs from the shorts, depending on which variant of an economic landing we could be facing.
It is good to finally see the USD strength we were calling for finally come into play. It may have a little further to run, which could see further downside on the weekly chart for EUR/USD. But first, we look at a potential long on the daily and 4-hour chart, taking the weekly analysis into account.
On one hand, seasonality for the S&P 500 and indices in general tends to be unfavourable in September. On the other, asset managers are 'all in' being long the index which sits just beneath its record high. We weigh up the competing factors to decide whether we should tread carefully around seasonality, or simply ignore it.
MS
Picking inflection points is not for everyone. But taking into account the two months of heavy USD selling, disapproval of a 'strong yen' from the BOJ and arguably oversold USD/JPY, perhaps some bullish mean reversion is due.
We take a look at the monthly, daily and 4-hour charts to show key levels.
We stand back to admire the long-term chart of the US dollar index, and yes there could be further downside over the coming weeks. But a quick check on the daily timeframe makes us wary of jumping into an already well-established short, given potential support levels nearby and the fact everyone and their dogs seem to be bearish the dollar.
Another day, another record high for a US stock market. Only the one seen on the Dow Jones underwhelms given it is not backed up by its own futures market, let alone its peers. We're also approaching end-of-month flows (which can prompt fickle price action). And keep an eye on the Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday (US) which can single-handedly drive sentiment...
Traders continue to sell the US dollar in anticipation of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. To the point where we wonder if this could be a case off "sell the rumour, buy the fact". Matt Simpson takes a quick look at the USD dollar index and bond yields.
Overbought indicators are of little use when markets are obsessed with rate cuts ahead of a key fed speech. Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson hole symposium and Friday, and expectations for a dovish show are high. And that's helped Wall Street indices extend gains and the allowed the ASX 200 to tag along for the ride. But if this turns out to be a classic...
Two key inflation reports for the US and a potentially live RBNZ meeting over the next 24 hours has put EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD onto my radar. And in each case, these markets have risen to interesting levels which hint at a weaker US dollar over the near-term. Part of this may be because traders are front-running weaker US inflation data.
If the RBNZ treat...
By Monday's low, USD/JPY had fallen -12.5% from its July high and the daily RSI (14) had reached its most oversold level since 1996. And with a bullish inside day on Tuesday with a potential bull flag forming on the intraday timeframe, dups look good over the near-term for bulls. Whether it can truly capitalise on any decent rally depends on appetite for risk in...
Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📚 As long as the resistance holds, we will be looking for sell setups on 1H.
📚Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Morning folks,
So, it seems that "222" Sell last time was not a bad idea at all. Despite that BTC stands in rectangle we've got two nicely looking downside bounce. Now we have some nuances with the BTC performance, but to keep it simple it is mostly suitable for those who like to trade breakouts.
If you do not want to wait a bit for clarity on daily chart, in...
Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📚 Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for #BTC.
📚Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
