The_STA

02:23

The_STA

The 10-year US Treasury yield, at its highest since July, has mostly moved sideways this year. However, the weekly chart reveals a potential falling wedge pattern. If yields close above 4.53%, it could signal a push towards new highs. Initial resistance is at 4.18% (200-day moving average) and 4.24% (55-week moving average). Markets expect a 25-basis point Fed...

03:42

The_STA

In the world of technical analysis, traders are always searching for tools that provide an edge in the markets. One such tool, which has stood the test of time, is Fibonacci retracement. Derived from a series of numbers discovered by the Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century, the Fibonacci sequence has been applied to various fields, from...

The_STA

Following the Fed rate cut last night, the S&P sold off into the close, forming a shooting star candlestick, which is typically a bearish signal. Coupled with a diverging RSI, this marks the third failed attempt to break above the 5670 July high. These indicators are compelling enough to consider a more cautious, short-term negative stance on the market,...

02:44

The_STA

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of my favourite indicators for gauging market conditions. Most traders learn that an RSI above 70 signals "overbought," while below 30 suggests "oversold." However, these standard levels don’t always give reliable signals, as seen on the USD/JPY daily chart. In situations like this, it's crucial to adjust the parameters....

02:47

The_STA

As a former professional technical analyst at a major bank, I used to write daily reports on the euro vs. the US dollar. Today, I want to share a technique I often used to identify entry points in the market. Looking at the EUR/USD weekly chart, I’ve spotted a large symmetrical triangle that’s completed, with the market breaking higher. A common move in this...

The_STA

Oil prices continue to drop as weak demand in China persists, despite disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. Latest data shows consumer inflation in China rising slower than expected, with crude oil imports rebounding slightly from July but still weak on a seasonal basis. In the Gulf, oil and gas producers are shutting down platforms and...

The_STA

Last week, we flagged a potential pullback in the FTSE 100, and it came to pass – the market dropped 195.16 points (2.33%) to close at 8181.47. Looking ahead, key support levels are just below the current market: • First, the 8044 high we mentioned last week. • Then, the August low at 7906. • However, the critical levels to watch are the uptrend at 7775 and the...

The_STA

🚨 Market Update: The UK100 Index (FTSE) recently hit resistance around the July high of 8408, peaking at 8418. It’s now facing short-term pressure, with the daily RSI showing a divergence that signals a loss of upward momentum. Given this, we could see further declines, possibly slipping back to the 55-day moving average at 8234, or even towards the 2023 high of...

02:16

The_STA

The gold market has been buoyed by a weaker US dollar, reaching all-time highs. Currently, it is in a consolidation phase, and the divergence in the daily RSI suggests this may continue in the near term. However, as long as the uptrend from February 2024 at 2415 and the 55-day moving average at 2402 hold, a positive bias remains intact. We also note a long-term...

01:55

The_STA

The EUR/USD is well-positioned to challenge the 2008-2024 resistance line at 1.1327. This outlook is supported by the recent breakout from a triangle pattern, which suggests an upside target of approximately 1.17. Additionally, the pair has broken through its 200-week moving average, reinforcing the bullish trend. The weekly DMI (Directional Movement Index) is...

The_STA

We've observed an impressive corrective rebound in the US 10-year yield chart. However, we are now approaching a significant resistance zone between 4.06% and 4.09%. This area marks the point where the yield previously broke out of its channel, aligning with the highs seen in March and July of 2023. Additionally, this zone represents the 38.2% retracement of the...

The_STA

While many are attributing the recent sell-off in stock markets to fears of a recession following last week's weak economic data, I believe the bearish trend was already unfolding in the US stock markets. On July 22, 2024, I wrote: "Following Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential election, a recovery in the US stock markets is anticipated. However, recent...

03:41

The_STA

Today, we're examining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the EUR/USD daily chart, focusing on the concepts of overbought and oversold conditions. I prefer to use divergence instead of absolute levels to determine overbought and oversold conditions. What is divergence? It occurs when the market reaches a new high, but the indicator does not, making a lower high...

06:32

The_STA

Hi! Today, I want to talk about trend lines and how useful they can be in your trading. 1. Valid Trend Lines • For a trend line to be valid, it must connect at least three points. • In the case of the US dollar versus Japanese yen, we are currently in an uptrend. Therefore, you should aim to connect three low points. • Once you have a valid trend line, drawing it...

09:32

The_STA

Imagine you've decided to buy a particular stock. Your position starts to make money, and you're thrilled. But what do you do now? Should you hold onto your position or cash it in? Has it made enough profit, or will it go further? It's painful to lose money, but it's also frustrating to take profits only to see your original investment quadruple in price after...

The_STA

I will confess I am not great at Elliott wave but does anyone else view the sideways to lower price action on Bitcoin as an ‘a-b-c’ pattern? If it is, we should see the market head back up to the recent peak at 74415 and the top of the 3-year channel at 76760 #bitcoin #elliotwave #technicalanalysis #markets Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading...

The_STA

We are analysing the euro-sterling daily chart following the UK election. Before the election, the market had broken down from a one-year range. Since the election, the chart has returned to the breakdown point, testing the previous low of 0.8498 from February. The market failed to surpass this level again. This indicates a return to the breakdown point within...

The_STA

I have always been a big believer in simple is best. Consider the daily EUR/JPY chart with the 55 and 200-period moving averages that I consistently use. Notice how the market mean reverted to the 200-day MA in December 2023 and retested it in January 2024 before resuming its upward move. In February 2024, once the market regained the 55-day MA, it stayed above...