TLT - Risk Off Is Dead (For Now At Least)
As risk on gravy train continues post FED interest rate cut 🚞, it is certainly worth noting that risk off bonds are becoming significantly bearish.
Notice that TLT 20 year bond ETF has seen a significant failure printing a 3 wave pattern with a slightly higher high to then collapse back down.
Also notice that it is a failure through the 20 month MA.
And this is printing a very bearish Evening Star Pattern.
I say "very" because the current candle is printing a significant bearish engulf of previous bullish candles.
Overall this is a very bearish look and I think this has a reasonable chance of re-testing the lows to print a Wyckoff ST Secondary Test.
Its not impossible that there could be another wave down if US government debt falls further out of market favour.
That is less likely I would suggest but never say never 🧐.
Not advice
Notice that TLT 20 year bond ETF has seen a significant failure printing a 3 wave pattern with a slightly higher high to then collapse back down.
Also notice that it is a failure through the 20 month MA.
And this is printing a very bearish Evening Star Pattern.
I say "very" because the current candle is printing a significant bearish engulf of previous bullish candles.
Overall this is a very bearish look and I think this has a reasonable chance of re-testing the lows to print a Wyckoff ST Secondary Test.
Its not impossible that there could be another wave down if US government debt falls further out of market favour.
That is less likely I would suggest but never say never 🧐.
Not advice
Comment
Looking a bit deeper, notice that US20Y (inverse to TLT) bottomed in the 1:0.618 Golden Window.
This is a weak ratio.
And so this could be a 3 wave correction now completing with a shakeout pattern through the 20 month moving average.
These charts are very exotic but this could be a first little clue that the bond market may be blowing up 👀.
We're into the post FED interest rate cut blow off phase for risk on markets🥳.
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Many Trade Ideas Every Day 📈
Regular videos ✨.
Telegram Group: $50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
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