JimHuangChicago

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Bitcoin Weekly Futures ( MIL:BFF ) On Thursday, October 10th, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. However, the...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

On September 24th, China announced an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, aiming to rescue its ailing economy. As soon as the news got out, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on September 24th to close at 3,336.5 on September 30th, up 19% in a week. One-month return for the SSE and notable Chinese...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! ) Last week, I discussed how China’s huge stimulus package, coupled with the Fed’s supersized rate cut, could improve global energy demand and lift crude oil higher. As soon as the stimulus was announced, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

NYMEX: Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) On September 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, ushering a long-awaited monetary easing cycle. Six days later, on September 24th, China introduced a broad stimulus package to revive its economy. It includes cutting interest rates, reducing bank reserve requirements,...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 Futures ( GETTEX:M2K ) Global financial market orbits around Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Hiking interest rates means monetary tightening while cutting them signals easing. In the past three years, we have witnessed a full cycle of Fed hikes and now its reversal. • In March 2022, as inflation rose rapidly, the Fed...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CBOT: Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) On Friday, July 12th, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). (Note: The WASDE report is published monthly and provides annual forecasts for global supply and use of wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton, as well as the U.S. supply...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: BTC Futures ( CME:BTC1! ) Bitcoin plunged last week as investors focused on the payout of nearly $9 billion to investors of collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox. Spot price slumped to as low as $53,513 on Friday, marking the first time that bitcoin traded below the $55K level since Feb. 27th. Another big bitcoin seller is the German government. In January,...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Last Thursday night, I watched the first Biden-Trump presidential debate live on TV, along with tens of millions of likely voters of the 2024 US presidential election. Who won the debate? According to the exit poll conducted by 538/Ipsos: • 60.1% of the likely voters being...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Euro FX ( CME:6E1! ), NYMEX: WTI ( NYMEX:CL1! ) Since I joined the TradingView community two years ago, I have discussed numerous trade ideas based on event-driven strategies. Below is my all-time favorite. Russia and Ukraine together account for 28% of the wheat export market. Their military conflict started in February 2022 threatened global wheat...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Euro FX ( CME:6E1! ) On June 6th, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the official Interest Rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 basis points from 4.00% to 3.75%. This was the first ECB key rate reduction in five years, signaling a major shift in monetary policies in the 20-nation Euro Zone. The ECB rate decision was widely...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Options ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) Last Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 5,277.5, up 10.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite settled at 16,735.0, advancing 11.5% YTD. This year, the chances of aggressive interest rate cuts diminished rapidly amid solid employment data and cooling US inflation. However, these...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

NYMEX: WTI Futures ( NYMEX:CL1! ) and WTI Weekly Options ( GETTEX:LO5 ) OPEC+, the coalition of the world’s leading oil producers, will convene on June 2nd to decide production policy for the second half of the year. The powerful oil cartel consists of 13 OPEC members and 9 nonmember participants, and together produces about 59% of global oil production. This...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! ), Live Cattle ( CME:LE1! ) Here is the official narrative on US inflation: The Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening policy has successfully brought down inflation rate from a four-decade high to about 3 percent, delivering much needed reliefs to US consumers. Government data supports this narrative. Take food costs as an example: In...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ) and Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) The recent US inflation cycle started in June 2020. As the global pandemic interrupted the global supply chain, the prices of goods began to rise rapidly. In the following two years, the headline CPI shot up nearly nine percent to a 40-year high. The Federal Reserve initially...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) Federal Reserve monetary policy is the dominant market mover across asset classes. Financial markets around the world rise and fall by any hint of the next policy move. Last Friday, US stocks jumped after a weak April jobs report boosted hopes that the Fed could start cutting interest rates soon. The Dow Jones Industrial...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) On March 24th, I published a trade idea, “Buckle Your Seatbelt for a Market Correction”, where I suggested that the US stock market was due for a major correction. Buying a Put contract on CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures would be a trade to express this market view. How is this trade panning out? • On March 24th, the...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last week, investors cheered as the Fed Chair reinforced that interest rate cuts are coming despite hot inflation readings in the last two months. For the full week, the Dow was up by nearly 2% in its best week since December 2023. The S&P was higher by 2.3% and the Nasdaq jumped 2.9%. The three major US stock indexes...

JimHuangChicago Wizard

CME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ), Micro ETH Futures ( CME:MET1! ) This Monday, bitcoin jumped above $49,000 for the first time in a year, and quickly extended its gains and broke through the $50,000 level. By Wednesday, bitcoin shot up again, pushing above $52,000 in morning session. In the past few months, the benchmark cryptocurrency has experienced a...